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Canadian housing forecast report ……

 

Highlights of the report:

 

  • We have updated our housing forecasts for Canada and the provinces to reflect recent changes to our outlook for the national and provincial economies, interest rates and oil prices. These changes include substantial downward revisions to oil price assumptions—to US$65 per barrel in 2015 and US$74 in 2016 (WTI, annual average basis)—a realignment of provincial economic growth (favouring Central Canada and BC at the expense of Alberta), and a lower path for longer-term interest rates (although they are still expected to rise).

 

  • The factor having the biggest effect on our housing forecasts at the national level is the later-expected start to, and more subdued pace of, the increase in longer-term interest rates. This results in higher levels of home resales in Canada and slightly stronger price increases than we previously anticipated for 2015.

 

  • Significantly lower assumed oil prices alter the provincial composition of forecasted housing market activity across Canada but have limited impact overall. We have downgraded our projections for home resales and prices in Alberta and Saskatchewan—similar adjustments in Newfoundland are not readily apparent in Atlantic Canada’s aggregate numbers—however, we have also boosted projections in net oil-consuming provinces, including Ontario, Quebec and BC.
  • Despite changes to underlying assumptions, our base-case scenario for Canada’s housing market remains largely unchanged: we believe that rising interest rates and increasingly strained affordability will bring about a moderation of overall activity. On an annual basis, we expect this moderation to translate first into a levelling off of resales nation-wide in 2015 before becoming an outright decline in 2016.
  • Our base-case scenario projects fairly sizable resale declines in Alberta and Saskatchewan starting in 2015, although such would unlikely qualify as market ‘crashes’. In fact, we expect home prices to continue to rise in Alberta in 2015, albeit at a much slower pace than in 2014.
  • We anticipate that any softening in oil industry-sensitive markets will be offset by gains elsewhere in the country in 2015. More specifically, we believe that resales in BC, Ontario and Quebec have more room to increase before higher interest rates exert a significant cooling effect (more likely to take place in 2016). Accordingly, we expect home prices to rise at a decent clip in Ontario and BC in 2015 (price increases in Quebec will be restrained by plentiful supply).
  • We continue to point to 2016 as a period most likely to prove challenging for Canada’s housing market. Our scenario for interest rates shows a substantial cumulative rise by then, which we believe will cause resales to decline in all provinces that year. We also expect small drops in prices in the majority of provinces.
  • Risks facing Canada’s housing sector are significant, both on the downside and upside. Downside risks include a severe slump in the energy sector that would far exceed gains in other parts of the economy or any other event causing widespread job losses. Upside risks include lower-than-expected interest rates and a stronger-than-expected economy.

 

Link to the full report

To view, print and download the new report, click on the following link:

 

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The latest edition of RBC Economics Research’s “Financial Markets Monthly” with updated financial market forecasts…… 

Highlights from this month’s Financial Markets Monthly: 

•             Oil price decline roiled financial markets resulting in a sharply lower government bond yields; we have adjusted our interest rate forecasts to take this into account.

•             Economic data are diverging with the US powering along while Europe stays weak.

•             Fed likely to raise funds target mid-year, with lower energy costs being simulative for growth.

•             Bank of Canada views the energy price decline as putting a "weight" on economic activity with a more fulsome assessment expected in the upcoming Monetary Policy Report.

•             ECB is expected to announce a broadening out of its asset purchase program keeping its aim on supporting growth and heading off deflation.

Link to “Financial Markets Monthly”

To view and download the new report, click on the following link:

http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/financial-markets/fmm-January2015.pdf

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This new year, take control of your financial future by thinking smart about your mortgage. Here are our top 10 tips to help you do just that!

1.  Get a mortgage checkup. That's right. Every year... no matter where you are in your mortgage. You get a checkup for your car to keep it running smoothly for the long-term. Your financial future deserves the same kind of attention.


2.  Deal with the holiday hangover. Many Canadians can go a little overboard financially during the holiday season. If your credit card balance is more than you can pay off in the next few months - and especially if you have other loans - then do yourself a favour and come in to chat. The right debt consolidation strategy could save you thousands and put you on the right financial path.


3.  Speed up your mortgage paydown. Try to find a way to use your prepayment privileges this year... at least once. Tax refund, financial gift, small inheritance... or just a little extra disciplined saving. Every single payment you make after that will go further. And instead of paying your mortgage monthly, pay weekly or bi-weekly. That small change can save you thousands.


4.  Renew with your eyes open. When your lender sends out a letter suggesting you renew your mortgage at their current offer, get advice. Don't renew with your eyes closed! This is your opportunity to negotiate the best possible deal!


5.  Cramped? You could renovate, not relocate. Maybe you think this is the year you need to move up. Maybe. But the right renovation - an addition, a new family room, a fresh kitchen - might be all it takes to turn the house you're in, into the home of your dreams. It is almost always less expensive to renovate than to relocate! We have great renovation financing options if that's what's in your future this year!


6.  Take care of your credit. It's so important to have good credit behaviours so you always qualify for the best mortgage rate. Pay your bills on time. Don't let your credit accounts exceed 30% of the credit available. Before you cancel any credit cards, get advice. And don't apply for a store card just to save on your purchase that day!


7.  Choose low-interest debt. Whatever your need might be - funding education, a large purchase, investments, renovations, or paying down debt, your mortgage might be your most cost-effective financing option.


8.  Don't leave money on the table if you bought last year. If you bought your first home in 2014, you may be able to take advantage of the $5,000 non-refundable Home Buyer Tax Credit amount, which provides up to $750 in federal tax relief. Not sure if you qualify, ask!


9.  Talk to me if you are going through a separation or divorce. Your home can be the asset that gives you both a fresh start. And if one of you wants to keep the marital home, I have some great mortgage options!
 

10.  Build a financial cushion. Your high-interest credit card should not be your emergency fund. This year, build a financial cushion: get in the habit of putting a small sum from every pay cheque into a special emergency fund

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Lets talk about how Maple Ridge is the third top city to invest in BC. I can offer you expert advice as to what renal would bring you the most investment what kind of renter you may attract and more. I have loads of ecperience in attracting a good renter and can help you with a purchase that will suit you best. What are you looking for?

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